The COVID-19 pandemic has changed Victoria’s longstanding pattern of population growth. While the state’s population has declined overall, regional Victoria, since June 2020, has welcomed twice as many people from Melbourne compared to before the pandemic. This is putting increasing pressure on residential development in some areas in regional Victoria.
One of the places that people choose to live is in new housing on the edge of regional cities and settlements. This is known as greenfield development. Working with councils from across the state, the Urban Development Program (UDP) has identified how much greenfield land is available for development. It identifies a pipeline of land as it is transformed from paddocks to lots for houses.
Several key centres have been identified for analysis to be incorporated in the new Regional Urban Development Program.
Method
The Urban Development Program (UDP) pipeline closely mirrors the statutory planning process.
As part of the data collection, a process of verification was conducted through consultation with council. This included identifying constraints to development and providing insights into the potential retail lot yield.
The two stages in the englobo greenfield supply category are:
1. Unzoned englobo land requiring a Precinct Structure Plan
This is englobo land that has been identified for future residential development by council through the Planning Policy Framework, an adopted housing and settlement strategy, etc. In some locations it is currently zoned Urban Growth Zone and will go through a precinct structure planning process. In other locations it is zoned as a non-urban use such Farm Zone. The UDP provides an estimate of the potential retail lot yield within a precinct.
2. Zoned englobo land
This is englobo land that is zoned and available for subdivision into retail lots. The UDP provides an estimate of the potential retail lot yield. The final lot yield that will be delivered is subject to council planning approval processes.
The two stages in the retail lot supply category are:
1. Proposed lots
This is land that has been included as “proposed” within the Vicmap Property dataset. Some changes to these lots may occur before they receive a title. The data is sourced from VicMap.
2. Lots with a title
This is land that has been registered, provided with a title and ready for dwellings to be built. The data is sourced from VicMap.
Retail lot yield
For unzoned and zoned englobo land a retail lot yield is calculated using existing structure plans or the density of recent nearby development.
Zones included
The residential zones considered in the UDP are:
- Neighbourhood Residential Zone
- General Residential Zone
- Residential Growth Zone
- Urban Growth Zone
Unzoned includes a range of zones earmarked for future development.
Major infill
Major infill was identified as land within the established area of a settlement that is greater than 1ha in area. These are often remnant greenfield land. They have been identified in consultation with council.
Get the data
There are three methods to access data from the Regional Urban Development Program (UDP).
An easy-to-use online mapping tool has been developed to enable users to access and use the UDPs spatial data.
Regional UDP spatial data (ZIP, 2.9 MB)
Download the Regional UDP data. You will require GIS software to use this data.
Summary tables of data shown in the report graphs.
Development Pipeline
Urban Development Program (UDP) has identified a pipeline of steps as land progresses from paddocks to lots for dwellings. Temporally, the pipeline stages are: unzoned englobo land, zoned englobo land, proposed lots and lots with a title.
Englobo land
Large pieces of land that have been identified for future subdivision into lots for dwellings. In the Urban Development Program pipeline this type of land is divided into two stages: unzoned englobo land and zoned englobo land.
Greenfield land
Former rural land on the edge of a settlement that is being developed for housing, typically detached houses
Lots with a title
This is land that has been registered, provided with a title and ready for dwellings to be built. The data is sourced from Vicmap.
Major Infill
Major infill is land within the established area of a settlement that is greater than 1ha in area. These pieces of land are often remnant greenfield land. They have been identified in consultation with council. They are not included as greenfield supply.
Precinct Structure Plan
A land-use and infrastructure plan to guide development of the area over time. It sets out the intended future land uses, infrastructure and development guidelines.
Proposed lots
This is land that has been included as “proposed” within the Vicmap Property dataset. Some changes to these lots may occur before they receive a title. The data is sourced from Vicmap.
Retail Lots
Lots that have been subdivided from englobo land into lots for dwellings to be built. Pieces of land. In the Urban Development Program pipeline this type of land is divided into two stages: proposed lots and lots with a title.
Unzoned englobo land
This is englobo land that has been identified for future residential development by council through the Planning Policy Framework, an adopted housing and settlement strategy, etc. In some locations it is currently zoned Urban Growth Zone and will go through a precinct structure planning process. In other locations it is zoned as a non-urban use such Farm Zone. The UDP provides an estimate of the potential retail lot yield within a precinct.
Zoned englobo land
This is englobo land that is zoned and available for subdivision into retail lots. The UDP provides an estimate of the potential retail lot yield. The final lot yield that will be delivered is subject to council planning approval processes.
Ballarat (Ballarat city)
State planning policy identifies the requirement to accommodate projected population growth over at least a 15 year period and provide clear direction on locations where growth should occur.
The Urban Development Program identifies greenfield land as land zoned for an urban residential use, such as land zoned General Residential Zone.
There are between 7 and 9 years of zoned greenfield supply in Ballarat.
These estimates of the number of years of supply are based on the average rate of lots released over a longer-term time period (between January 2018 and June 2021) and a shorter-term time period (between January 2020 and June 2021).
Recent population trends
Over the last decade, population in the City of Ballarat has grown by 18,000 people to reach a population of around 110,000. Around 1,000 dwellings per year have been built over the last 10 years to accommodate this population growth. Most growth has been in large greenfield estates on the fringes of Ballarat, including Alfredton and Lucas.
Greenfield Supply
Greenfield land is made up larger lots commonly referred to as englobo land supply. It is classified as either:
- unzoned future residential land; or;
- zoned future residential land.
At end of June 2021 there were an estimated 12,385 retail lots of zoned englobo greenfield land. There were also enough potential major residential infill sites for an estimated 1,163 retail lots. Major infill is not included in the greenfield years of supply calculation.
Estimated retail lot supply - Ballarat June 2021
Town/Area | Development Type | Unzoned | Zoned | Proposed | Total Supply |
Alfredton / Lucas and South Western Growth | Greenfield | 0 | 9,851 | 1,635 | 11,486 |
Brown Hill | Greenfield | 0 | 660 | 122 | 782 |
Remainder | Greenfield | 0 | 88 | 29 | 117 |
Greenfield Total | 0 | 10,599 | 1,786 | 12,385 | |
All | Major infill | 0 | 1,030 | 133 | 1,163 |
Total | 0 | 11,629 | 1,919 | 13,548 |
Retail lots released with a title
Estimates of the number of years of supply are based on the average rate of retail lots released over a longer-term time period (between January 2018 and June 2021) and a shorter-term time period (between January 2020 and June 2021). Retail lots are considered released when a title has been registered and ready to construct a dwelling on.
Between 2018 and 2020 retail lot production has been averaging around 1,190 lots p.a. Since 2018 the level of retail lot production has been varied. In the first half of 2021 782 lots have been released in Ballarat.
Size of greenfield retail lots
The years of supply of greenfield land partly depends on the size of lots being produced. If new lots are smaller on average than in the past the supply of englobo land is extended.
Fragmented land
The rate at which greenfield land can be developed into houses can also partly depend on the characteristics of englobo lots. Large englobo lots, such as those over 10 hectares, can be easier to assemble and service. Smaller lots can provide opportunities for small to medium sized developments.
In Ballarat 14 englobo lots have an area of 10 hectares or more which is estimated to produce 4,150 retail lots.