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In Ballarat there is capacity for 11,000 residential lots on zoned land which equates to 7-8 years supply. There are also an additional 24,000 residential lots on land planned to be rezoned which equates to a further 16-19 years supply.

The population in the City of Ballarat has grown by 18,000 people over the last decade to reach a population of 113,500. Around 1,000 dwellings per year have been built over the previous 10 years to accommodate that population growth. Most of the population growth has been in large greenfield estates on the fringes of Ballarat such as Alfredton and Lucas.

Greenfield supply

At end of June 2022 there were an estimated 35,645 retail lots in unzoned and zoned englobo greenfield land. There were also enough potential major residential infill sites for an estimated 1,211 retail lots.

Estimated retail lot supply, June 2022

Area and typeUnzonedZonedProposed Total supply
Alfredton/Lucas and South Western growth – Greenfield 18,440 8,099 2,050 28,589
Brown Hill – Greenfield 0 634 106 740
Miners Rest – Greenfield 6,190 0 18 6,208
Remainder – Greenfield 0 80 20 108
Greenfield total24,6308,8132,20235,645
All – Major infill 0 1,032 179 1,211
Total24,6309,8452,381 36,856

Major infill is not included in calculation of greenfield years of supply.

Retail lots released with a title

Years of supply is estimated from long and short term average lot greenfield release. Retail lots are considered released when a title has been registered and ready to construct a dwelling on.

Between 2018-2021 retail lot production in the City of Ballarat has been averaging around 1,250 lots per annum. Since 2018 the level of retail lot production has been varied. In the first half of 2022, 616 lots have been released.

Greenfield retail lots 2015 to July 2022

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Size of greenfield retail lots

Changes in lot sizes can vary estimates of future supply. If recent lots are smaller than in the past, the estimated capacity of englobo land is increased.

From 2018 there has been a steady increase in lots between 300 and 499 m2. In the first half of 2022 this smaller lot size made up 63% of lots approved.

Size of greenfield retail lots 2015 to July 2022

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Size of englobo lots

The size of englobo lots can also vary the rate at which greenfield land is developed. Large englobo lots, such as those over 10 ha, can be easier to transform into larger developments. Smaller lots can provide opportunities for small to medium sized developments .

In Ballarat 11 zoned englobo lots have an area of 10 ha or more. This is estimated to produce 2,900 retail lots.

Estimated retail lot yield by englobo lot size

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Some englobo parcels known to be within the same development have been combined.

Page last updated: 11/06/23