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In Geelong there is capacity for 18,900 residential lots (8 to 9 years supply) on zoned land and an additional 42,700 residential lots (19 to 21 years supply) on land planned to be rezoned.
Over the last decade, population in Greater Geelong has grown by 55,000 people to reach a population of 270,700. Around 2,800 dwellings per year have been built over the last 10 years to accommodate that population growth, in larger greenfields sites, smaller greenfield developments and infill sites. In recent years, greenfield estates in Armstrong Creek have accounted for a growing share of total growth.
Greenfield supply
At end of June 2022 there were an estimated 61,578 retail lots in unzoned and zoned englobo greenfield land. There were also enough potential major residential infill sites for an estimated 783 retail lots.
Estimated retail lot supply June 2022
| Area and type | Unzoned | Zoned | Proposed | Total supply |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Armstrong Creek/Marshall – Greenfield | 1,978 | 9,790 | 4,120 | 15,888 |
| Lara – Greenfield | 415 | 102 | 23 | 540 |
| Lara West – Greenfield | 300 | 2,481 | 1,119 | 3,900 |
| Northen & Western growth areas – Greenfield | 40,028 | 0 | 0 | 40,028 |
| Remainder – Greenfield | 0 | 1,004 | 218 | 1,222 |
| Greenfield total | 42,721 | 13,377 | 5,480 | 61,578 |
| All – Major infill | 0 | 716 | 67 | 783 |
| Total | 42,721 | 14,093 | 5,547 | 62,361 |
Major infill is not included calculation of greenfield years of supply.
Retail lots released with a title
Years of supply is estimated from long and short term average lot greenfield release. Retail lots are considered released when a title has been registered and ready to construct a dwelling on.
Between 2018 and 2021 retail lot production has been averaging around 2,050 lots p.a. Since 2018 the level of retail lot production has been varied. In the first half of 2022, 712 lots have been released.
Greenfield retail lots 2015 to July 2022
Size of greenfield retail lots
Changes in lot sizes can vary estimates of future supply. If recent lots are smaller than in the past, the estimated capacity of englobo land is increased.
Since 2015 there has been a steady increase in lots less than 500 m2. In the first half of 2022, 70% of lots approved were between 300 and 500 m2 with lots less than 300 m2 making up nearly 20%.
Size of englobo lots
The size of englobo lots can also vary the rate at which greenfield land is developed. Large englobo lots, such as those over 10 hectares, can be easier to transform into larger developments. Smaller lots can provide opportunities for small to medium sized developments.
In Geelong 27 zoned englobo lots have an area of 10 hectares or more which is estimated to produce 6,300 retail lots.
Estimated retail lot yield by englobo lot size
Some englobo parcels known to be within the same development have been combined.
Page last updated: 11/06/23