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In Drouin and Warragul there is capacity for 21,400 residential lots on zoned land which equates to 40 to 44 years supply. The population in Baw Baw Shire has grown by 14,000 people over the last decade to reach a population of 57,500. Around 600 dwellings per year have been built over the last 10 years to accommodate that population growth.
Most of the population growth has been in large greenfield estates in Drouin and Warragul.
Greenfield supply
At end of June 2022 there were an estimated 21,356 retail lots in zoned englobo greenfield land. There were also enough potential major residential infill sites for an estimated 108 retail lots.
Estimated retail lot supply June 2022
| Area and type | Unzoned | Zoned | Proposed | Total supply |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drouin – Greenfield | 0 | 8,019 | 713 | 8,732 |
| Warragul – Greenfield | 0 | 11,795 | 829 | 12,624 |
| Greenfield total | 0 | 19,814 | 1,542 | 21,356 |
| All – Major infill | 0 | 99 | 9 | 108 |
| Total | 0 | 19,913 | 1,551 | 36,856 |
Major infill is not included calculation of greenfield years of supply.
Retail lots released with a title
Years of supply is estimated from long and short term average lot greenfield release. Retail lots are considered released when a title has been registered and ready to construct a dwelling on.
Between 2018 and 2021 retail lot production in Baw Baw Shire has averaged around 540 lots per annum. Since 2018 the level of retail lot production has been varied. In the first half of 2022, 225 lots have been released which is equal to the amount released for the whole of 2017.
Greenfield retail lots 2015 to July 2022
Size of greenfield retail lots
Changes in lot sizes can vary estimates of future supply. If recent lots are smaller than in the past, the estimated capacity of englobo land is increased.
Since 2015 most new lots have been between 500 and 649 m2, however the last 2 years have seen an increase in lots between 300 and 499 m2.
Size of englobo lots
The size of englobo lots can also vary the rate at which greenfield land is developed. Large englobo lots, such as those over 10 hectares, can be easier to transform into larger developments. Smaller lots can provide opportunities for small to medium sized developments.
In Drouin and Warragul 64 zoned englobo lots have an area of 10 hectares or more. This is estimated to produce 15,000 retail lots.
Estimated retail lot yield by englobo lot size
Some englobo parcels known to be within the same development have been combined.
Page last updated: 11/06/23