Geelong
The Urban Development Program identifies greenfield land as land zoned for an urban residential use, such as land zoned General Residential Zone.
In Geelong there is capacity for 18,900 residential lots (8 to 9 years supply) on zoned land and an additional 42,700 residential lots (19 to 21 years supply) on land planned to be rezoned.
These estimates of the number of years of supply are based on the average rate of lots released over a longer-term time period (between January 2018 and June 2022) and a shorter-term time period (between January 2020 and June 2022).
Recent population trends
Over the last decade, population in Greater Geelong has grown by 55,000 people to reach a population of 270,700. Around 2,800 dwellings per year have been built over the last 10 years to accommodate that population growth, in larger greenfields sites, smaller greenfield developments and infill sites. In recent years, greenfield estates in Armstrong Creek have accounted for a growing share of total growth.
Greenfield Supply
Greenfield land is made up larger lots commonly referred to as englobo land supply. It is classified as either:
- unzoned future residential land; or;
- zoned future residential land.
At end of June 2022 there were an estimated 61,578 retail lots in unzoned and zoned englobo greenfield land. There were also enough potential major residential infill sites for an estimated 783 retail lots. Major infill is not included in the greenfield years of supply calculation.
Estimated retail lot supply, June 2022
Town/Area | Development Type | Unzoned | Zoned | Proposed | Total Supply |
Armstrong Creek / Marshall | Greenfield | 1,978 | 9,790 | 4,120 | 15,888 |
Lara | Greenfield | 415 | 102 | 23 | 540 |
Lara West | Greenfield | 300 | 2,481 | 1,119 | 3,900 |
Northen and Western Growth Areas | Greenfield | 40,028 | 0 | 0 | 40,028 |
Remainder | Greenfield | 0 | 1,004 | 218 | 1,222 |
Greenfield Total | 42,721 | 13,377 | 5,480 | 61,578 | |
All | Major infill | 0 | 716 | 67 | 783 |
Total | 42,721 | 14,093 | 5,547 | 62,361 |
Retail lots released with a title
Estimates of the number of years of supply are based on the average rate of retail lots released over a longer-term time period (between January 2018 and June 2022) and a shorter-term time period (between January 2020 and June 2022). Retail lots are considered released when a title has been registered and ready to construct a dwelling on.
Between 2018 and 2021 retail lot production has been averaging around 2,050 lots p.a. Since 2018 the level of retail lot production has been varied. In the first half of 2022, 712 lots have been released.
Greenfield retail lots with a title, 2015 to July 2022
Size of greenfield retail lots
The years of supply of greenfield land partly depends on the size of lots being produced. If new lots are smaller on average than in the past the supply of englobo land is extended.
Since 2015 there has been a steady increase in lots less than 500 m2. In the first half of 2022, 70% of lots approved were between 300 and 500 m2 with lots less than 300 m2 making up nearly 20%.
Size of greenfield retail lots with a title, 2015 to July 2022
Fragmented land
The rate at which greenfield land can be developed into houses can also partly depend on the characteristics of englobo lots. Large englobo lots, such as those over 10 hectares, can be easier to assemble and service. Smaller lots can provide opportunities for small to medium sized developments.
In Geelong 27 zoned englobo lots have an area of 10 hectares or more which is estimated to produce 6,300 retail lots.
Page last updated: 24/10/22