Baw Baw (Drouin and Warragul)
The Urban Development Program identifies greenfield land as land zoned for an urban residential use, such as land zoned General Residential Zone.
In Drouin and Warragul there is capacity for 21,400 residential lots (40 to 44 years supply) on zoned land.
These estimates of the number of years of supply are based on the average rate of lots released over a longer-term time period (between January 2018 and June 2022) and a shorter-term time period (between January 2020 and June 2022).
Recent population trends
Over the last decade, population in Baw Baw Shire has grown by 14,000 people to reach a population of 57,500. Around 600 dwellings per year have been built over the last 10 years to accommodate that population growth, with most growth taking place in large greenfield estates in Drouin and Warragul.
Greenfield land is made up larger lots commonly referred to as englobo land supply. It is classified as either:
- unzoned future residential land; or;
- zoned future residential land.
At end of June 2022 there were an estimated 21,356 retail lots in zoned englobo greenfield land. There were also enough potential major residential infill sites for an estimated 108 retail lots. Major infill is not included in the greenfield years of supply calculation.
Estimated retail lot supply, June 2022
Retail lots released with a title
Estimates of the number of years of supply are based on the average rate of retail lots released over a longer-term time period (between January 2018 and June 2022) and a shorter-term time period (between January 2020 and June 2022). Retail lots are considered released when a title has been registered and ready to construct a dwelling on.
Between 2018 and 2021 retail lot production in Drouin and Warragul has averaged around 540 lots p.a. Since 2018 the level of retail lot production has been varied. However, in the first half of 2022, 225 lots have been released which is equal to the amount released for the whole of 2017.
Greenfield retail lots with a title, 2015 to July 2022
Size of greenfield retail lots
The years of supply of greenfield land partly depends on the size of lots being produced. If new lots are smaller on average than in the past the supply of englobo land is extended.
Since 2015 most new lots have been between 500 and 649 m2, however the last 2 years have seen an increase in lots between 300 and 499 m2.
Size of greenfield retail lots with a title, 2015 to July 2022
The rate at which greenfield land can be developed into houses can also partly depend on the characteristics of englobo lots. Large englobo lots, such as those over 10 hectares, can be easier to assemble and service. Smaller lots can provide opportunities for small to medium sized developments.
In Drouin and Warragul 64 zoned englobo lots have an area of 10 hectares or more which is estimated to produce 15,000 retail lots..
Estimated retail lot yield by englobo lot size
Page last updated: 24/10/22