The COVID-19 pandemic has changed Victoria’s longstanding pattern of population growth. While the state’s population has declined overall, regional Victoria has maintained its growth levels through the pandemic.
One of the places that people choose to live is in new housing on the edge of regional cities and settlements. This is known as greenfield development. Working with councils from across the state, the Urban Development Program (UDP) has identified how much greenfield land is available for development. It identifies a pipeline of land as it is transformed from paddocks to lots for houses.
Several key centres have been identified for analysis to be incorporated in the new Regional Urban Development Program.
Method
The Urban Development Program (UDP) pipeline closely mirrors the statutory planning process.
As part of the data collection, a process of verification was conducted through consultation with council. This included identifying constraints to development and providing insights into the potential retail lot yield.
Urban Development Pipeline
This development pipeline is split into two categories, englobo greenfield supply and retail lot supply.
The two stages in the englobo greenfield supply category are:
1. Unzoned englobo land requiring a Precinct Structure Plan
This is englobo land that has been identified for future residential development by council through the Planning Policy Framework, an adopted housing and settlement strategy, etc. In some locations it is currently zoned Urban Growth Zone and will go through a precinct structure planning process. In other locations it is zoned as a non-urban use such Farm Zone. The UDP provides an estimate of the potential retail lot yield within a precinct.
2. Zoned englobo land
This is englobo land that is zoned and available for subdivision into retail lots. The UDP provides an estimate of the potential retail lot yield. The final lot yield that will be delivered is subject to council planning approval processes.
The two stages in the retail lot supply category are:
1. Proposed lots
This is land that has been included as “proposed” within the Vicmap Property dataset. Some changes to these lots may occur before they receive a title. The data is sourced from VicMap.
2. Lots with a title
This is land that has been registered, provided with a title and ready for dwellings to be built. The data is sourced from VicMap.
Retail lot yield
For unzoned and zoned englobo land a retail lot yield is calculated using existing structure plans or the density of recent nearby development.
Zones included
The residential zones considered in the UDP are:
- Neighbourhood Residential Zone
- General Residential Zone
- Residential Growth Zone
- Urban Growth Zone
Unzoned includes a range of zones earmarked for future development.
Major infill
Major infill was identified as land within the established area of a settlement that is greater than 1 ha in area. These are often remnant greenfield land. They have been identified in consultation with council.
Get the data
There are three methods to access data from the Regional Urban Development Program (UDP).
An easy-to-use online mapping tool has been developed to enable users to access and use the UDPs spatial data.
Regional UDP spatial data (ZIP, 3.6 MB)
Download the Regional UDP data as a geopackage. You will require GIS software to use this data.
Summary tables of data shown in the report graphs.
Development Pipeline
Urban Development Program (UDP) has identified a pipeline of steps as land progresses from paddocks to lots for dwellings. Temporally, the pipeline stages are: unzoned englobo land, zoned englobo land, proposed lots and lots with a title.
Englobo land
Large pieces of land that have been identified for future subdivision into lots for dwellings. In the Urban Development Program pipeline this type of land is divided into two stages: unzoned englobo land and zoned englobo land.
Greenfield land
Former rural land on the edge of a settlement that is being developed for housing, typically detached houses.
Lots with a title
This is land that has been registered, provided with a title and ready for dwellings to be built. The data is sourced from Vicmap.
Major Infill
Major infill is land within the established area of a settlement that is greater than 1 ha in area. These pieces of land are often remnant greenfield land. They have been identified in consultation with council. They are not included as greenfield supply.
Precinct Structure Plan
A land-use and infrastructure plan to guide development of the area over time. It sets out the intended future land uses, infrastructure and development guidelines.
Proposed lots
This is land that has been included as “proposed” within the Vicmap Property dataset. Some changes to these lots may occur before they receive a title. The data is sourced from Vicmap.
Retail Lots
Lots that have been subdivided from englobo land into lots for dwellings to be built. In the Urban Development Program pipeline this type of land is divided into two stages: proposed lots and lots with a title.
Unzoned englobo land
This is englobo land that has been identified for future residential development by council through the Planning Policy Framework, an adopted housing and settlement strategy, etc. In some locations it is currently zoned Urban Growth Zone and will go through a precinct structure planning process. In other locations it is zoned as a non-urban use such Farm Zone. The UDP provides an estimate of the potential retail lot yield within a precinct.
Zoned englobo land
This is englobo land that is zoned and available for subdivision into retail lots. The UDP provides an estimate of the potential retail lot yield. The final lot yield that will be delivered is subject to council planning approval processes.
Ballarat (Ballarat city)
The Urban Development Program identifies greenfield land as land zoned for an urban residential use, such as land zoned General Residential Zone.
In Ballarat there is capacity for 11,000 residential lots (7 to 8 years supply) on zoned land and an additional 24,000 residential lots (16 to 19 years supply) on land planned to be rezoned.
These estimates of the number of years of supply are based on the average rate of lots released over a longer-term time period (between January 2018 and June 2022) and a shorter-term time period (between January 2020 and June 2022).
Recent population trends
Over the last decade, population in the City of Ballarat has grown by 18,000 people to reach a population of 113,500. Around 1,000 dwellings per year have been built over the last 10 years to accommodate that population growth. Most growth has been in large greenfield estates on the fringes of Ballarat, including Alfredton and Lucas.
Greenfield Supply
Greenfield land is made up larger lots commonly referred to as englobo land supply. It is classified as either:
- unzoned future residential land; or;
- zoned future residential land.
At end of June 2022 there were an estimated 35,645 retail lots in unzoned and zoned englobo greenfield land. There were also enough potential major residential infill sites for an estimated 1,211 retail lots. Major infill is not included in the greenfield years of supply calculation.
Estimated retail lot supply, June 2022
Town/Area | Development Type | Unzoned | Zoned | Proposed | Total Supply |
Alfredton/Lucas and South Western Growth | Greenfield | 18,440 | 8,099 | 2,050 | 28,589 |
Brown Hill | Greenfield | 0 | 634 | 106 | 740 |
Miners Rest | Greenfield | 6,190 | 0 | 18 | 6,208 |
Remainder | Greenfield | 0 | 80 | 28 | 108 |
Greenfield Total | 24,630 | 8,813 | 2,202 | 35,645 | |
All | Major infill | 0 | 1,032 | 179 | 1,211 |
Total | 24,630 | 9,845 | 2,381 | 36,856 |
Retail lots released with a title
Estimates of the number of years of supply are based on the average rate of retail lots released over a longer-term time period (between January 2018 and June 2022) and a shorter-term time period (between January 2020 and June 2022). Retail lots are considered released when a title has been registered and ready to construct a dwelling on.
Between 2018 and 2021 retail lot production has been averaging around 1,250 lots p.a. Since 2018 the level of retail lot production has been varied. In the first half of 2022, 616 lots have been released in Ballarat.
Greenfield retail lots with a title, 2015 to July 2022
Size of greenfield retail lots
The years of supply of greenfield land partly depends on the size of lots being produced. If new lots are smaller on average than in the past the supply of englobo land is extended.
Since 2018 there has been a steady increase in lots between 300 and 499 m2. In the first half of 2022 this smaller lot size made up 63% of lots approved.
Size of greenfield retail lots with a title, 2015 to July 2022
Fragmented land
The rate at which greenfield land can be developed into houses can also partly depend on the characteristics of englobo lots. Large englobo lots, such as those over 10 hectares, can be easier to assemble and service. Smaller lots can provide opportunities for small to medium sized developments.
In Ballarat 11 zoned englobo lots have an area of 10 hectares or more which is estimated to produce 2,900 retail lots.
Baw Baw (Drouin and Warragul)
The Urban Development Program identifies greenfield land as land zoned for an urban residential use, such as land zoned General Residential Zone.
In Drouin and Warragul there is capacity for 21,400 residential lots (40 to 44 years supply) on zoned land.
These estimates of the number of years of supply are based on the average rate of lots released over a longer-term time period (between January 2018 and June 2022) and a shorter-term time period (between January 2020 and June 2022).
Recent population trends
Over the last decade, population in Baw Baw Shire has grown by 14,000 people to reach a population of 57,500. Around 600 dwellings per year have been built over the last 10 years to accommodate that population growth, with most growth taking place in large greenfield estates in Drouin and Warragul.
Greenfield Supply
Greenfield land is made up larger lots commonly referred to as englobo land supply. It is classified as either:
- unzoned future residential land; or;
- zoned future residential land.
At end of June 2022 there were an estimated 21,356 retail lots in zoned englobo greenfield land. There were also enough potential major residential infill sites for an estimated 108 retail lots. Major infill is not included in the greenfield years of supply calculation.
Estimated retail lot supply, June 2022
Town/Area | Development Type | Unzoned | Zoned | Proposed | Total Supply |
Drouin | Greenfield | 0 | 8,019 | 713 | 8,732 |
Warragul | Greenfield | 0 | 11,795 | 829 | 12,624 |
Greenfield Total | 0 | 19,814 | 1,542 | 21,356 | |
All | Major infill | 0 | 99 | 9 | 108 |
Total | 0 | 19,913 | 1,551 | 21,464 |
Retail lots released with a title
Estimates of the number of years of supply are based on the average rate of retail lots released over a longer-term time period (between January 2018 and June 2022) and a shorter-term time period (between January 2020 and June 2022). Retail lots are considered released when a title has been registered and ready to construct a dwelling on.
Between 2018 and 2021 retail lot production in Drouin and Warragul has averaged around 540 lots p.a. Since 2018 the level of retail lot production has been varied. However, in the first half of 2022, 225 lots have been released which is equal to the amount released for the whole of 2017.
Greenfield retail lots with a title, 2015 to July 2022
Size of greenfield retail lots
The years of supply of greenfield land partly depends on the size of lots being produced. If new lots are smaller on average than in the past the supply of englobo land is extended.
Since 2015 most new lots have been between 500 and 649 m2, however the last 2 years have seen an increase in lots between 300 and 499 m2.
Size of greenfield retail lots with a title, 2015 to July 2022
Fragmented land
The rate at which greenfield land can be developed into houses can also partly depend on the characteristics of englobo lots. Large englobo lots, such as those over 10 hectares, can be easier to assemble and service. Smaller lots can provide opportunities for small to medium sized developments.
In Drouin and Warragul 64 zoned englobo lots have an area of 10 hectares or more which is estimated to produce 15,000 retail lots..
Estimated retail lot yield by englobo lot size
Bendigo (Bendigo city)
The Urban Development Program identifies greenfield land as land zoned for an urban residential use, such as land zoned General Residential Zone.
In Bendigo there is capacity for 6,400 residential lots (16 to 17 years supply) on zoned land and an additional 4,100 residential lots (10 to 11 years supply) on land planned to be rezoned.
These estimates of the number of years of supply are based on the average rate of lots released over a longer-term time period (between January 2018 and June 2022) and a shorter-term time period (between January 2020 and June 2022).
Recent population trends
Over the last decade, population in the City of Greater Bendigo has grown by 19,000 people to reach a population of 121,200. Around 1,000 dwellings per year have been built over the last 10 years to accommodate that population growth, with a mix of larger greenfield sites, smaller greenfield developments and infill sites.
Greenfield Supply
Greenfield land is made up larger lots commonly referred to as englobo land supply. It is classified as either:
- unzoned future residential land; or;
- zoned future residential land.
At end of June 2022 there were an estimated 10,482 retail lots in unzoned and zoned englobo greenfield land. There were also enough potential major residential infill sites for an estimated 1,395 retail lots. Major infill is not included in the greenfield years of supply calculation.
Estimated retail lot supply, June 2022
Town/Area | Development Type | Unzoned | Zoned | Proposed | Total Supply |
Huntly/Bagshot | Greenfield | 477 | 1,491 | 380 | 2,348 |
Maiden Gully | Greenfield | 1,200 | 1,936 | 0 | 3,136 |
Marong | Greenfield | 1,948 | 150 | 80 | 2,178 |
Strathfieldsaye | Greenfield | 429 | 1,167 | 285 | 1,881 |
Remainder | Greenfield | 0 | 871 | 68 | 939 |
Greenfield Total | 4,054 | 5,615 | 813 | 10,482 | |
All | Major infill | 0 | 1,265 | 130 | 1,395 |
Total | 4,054 | 6,880 | 943 | 11,877 |
Retail lots released with a title
Estimates of the number of years of supply are based on the average rate of retail lots released over a longer-term time period (between January 2018 and June 2022) and a shorter-term time period (between January 2020 and June 2022). Retail lots are considered released when a title has been registered and ready to construct a dwelling on.
Between 2018 and 2021 retail lot production has been averaging around 370 lots p.a. Since 2018 the level of retail lot production has been varied. However, in the first half of 2022, 152 lots have been released in Bendigo.
Greenfield retail lots with a title, 2015 to July 2022
Size of greenfield retail lots
The years of supply of greenfield land partly depends on the size of lots being produced. If new lots are smaller on average than in the past the supply of englobo land is extended.
Since 2016 the proportion of larger lots over 650 m2 has declined from nearly 70% to less than 40% in the last 2 years.
Size of greenfield retail lots with a title, 2015 to July 2022
Fragmented land
The rate at which greenfield land can be developed into houses can also partly depend on the characteristics of englobo lots. Large englobo lots, such as those over 10 hectares, can be easier to assemble and service. Smaller lots can provide opportunities for small to medium sized developments.
In Bendigo 8 zoned englobo lots have an area of 10 hectares or more which is estimated to produce 2,250 retail lots.
Geelong
The Urban Development Program identifies greenfield land as land zoned for an urban residential use, such as land zoned General Residential Zone.
In Geelong there is capacity for 18,900 residential lots (8 to 9 years supply) on zoned land and an additional 42,700 residential lots (19 to 21 years supply) on land planned to be rezoned.
These estimates of the number of years of supply are based on the average rate of lots released over a longer-term time period (between January 2018 and June 2022) and a shorter-term time period (between January 2020 and June 2022).
Recent population trends
Over the last decade, population in Greater Geelong has grown by 55,000 people to reach a population of 270,700. Around 2,800 dwellings per year have been built over the last 10 years to accommodate that population growth, in larger greenfields sites, smaller greenfield developments and infill sites. In recent years, greenfield estates in Armstrong Creek have accounted for a growing share of total growth.
Greenfield Supply
Greenfield land is made up larger lots commonly referred to as englobo land supply. It is classified as either:
- unzoned future residential land; or;
- zoned future residential land.
At end of June 2022 there were an estimated 61,578 retail lots in unzoned and zoned englobo greenfield land. There were also enough potential major residential infill sites for an estimated 783 retail lots. Major infill is not included in the greenfield years of supply calculation.
Estimated retail lot supply, June 2022
Town/Area | Development Type | Unzoned | Zoned | Proposed | Total Supply |
Armstrong Creek / Marshall | Greenfield | 1,978 | 9,790 | 4,120 | 15,888 |
Lara | Greenfield | 415 | 102 | 23 | 540 |
Lara West | Greenfield | 300 | 2,481 | 1,119 | 3,900 |
Northen and Western Growth Areas | Greenfield | 40,028 | 0 | 0 | 40,028 |
Remainder | Greenfield | 0 | 1,004 | 218 | 1,222 |
Greenfield Total | 42,721 | 13,377 | 5,480 | 61,578 | |
All | Major infill | 0 | 716 | 67 | 783 |
Total | 42,721 | 14,093 | 5,547 | 62,361 |
Retail lots released with a title
Estimates of the number of years of supply are based on the average rate of retail lots released over a longer-term time period (between January 2018 and June 2022) and a shorter-term time period (between January 2020 and June 2022). Retail lots are considered released when a title has been registered and ready to construct a dwelling on.
Between 2018 and 2021 retail lot production has been averaging around 2,050 lots p.a. Since 2018 the level of retail lot production has been varied. In the first half of 2022, 712 lots have been released.
Greenfield retail lots with a title, 2015 to July 2022
Size of greenfield retail lots
The years of supply of greenfield land partly depends on the size of lots being produced. If new lots are smaller on average than in the past the supply of englobo land is extended.
Since 2015 there has been a steady increase in lots less than 500 m2. In the first half of 2022, 70% of lots approved were between 300 and 500 m2 with lots less than 300 m2 making up nearly 20%.
Size of greenfield retail lots with a title, 2015 to July 2022
Fragmented land
The rate at which greenfield land can be developed into houses can also partly depend on the characteristics of englobo lots. Large englobo lots, such as those over 10 hectares, can be easier to assemble and service. Smaller lots can provide opportunities for small to medium sized developments.
In Geelong 27 zoned englobo lots have an area of 10 hectares or more which is estimated to produce 6,300 retail lots.
Horsham
The Urban Development Program identifies greenfield land as land zoned for an urban residential use, such as land zoned General Residential Zone.
In Horsham there is capacity for 1,300 residential lots (24 to 33 years supply) on zoned land.
These estimates of the number of years of supply are based on the average rate of lots released over a longer-term time period (between January 2018 and June 2022) and a shorter-term time period (between January 2020 and June 2022).
Recent population trends
Over the last decade, population in Horsham has grown by 800 people to reach a population of 20,300. Around 100 dwellings per year have been built over the last 10 years to accommodate that population growth in smaller greenfield developments and infill sites.
Greenfield Supply
Greenfield land is made up larger lots commonly referred to as englobo land supply. It is classified as either:
- unzoned future residential land; or;
- zoned future residential land.
At end of June 2022 there were an estimated 1,285 retail lots in zoned englobo greenfield land. There were also enough potential major residential infill sites for an estimated 18 retail lots. Major infill is not included in the greenfield years of supply calculation.
Estimated retail lot supply, June 2022
Town/Area | Development Type | Unzoned | Zoned | Proposed | Total Supply |
Horsham | Greenfield | 0 | 1,281 | 4 | 1,285 |
Greenfield Total | 0 | 1,281 | 4 | 1,285 | |
Horsham | Major infill | 0 | 18 | 0 | 18 |
Total | 0 | 1,299 | 4 | 1,303 |
Retail lots released with a title
Estimates of the number of years of supply are based on the average rate of retail lots released over a longer-term time period (between January 2018 and June 2022) and a shorter-term time period (between January 2020 and June 2022). Retail lots are considered released when a title has been registered and ready to construct a dwelling on.
Between 2018 and 2021 retail lot production has been averaging around 40 lots p.a. Since 2018 the level of retail lot production has been varied. In the first half of 2022, 31 lots have been released in Horsham.
Greenfield retail lots with a title, 2015 to July 2022
Size of greenfield retail lots
The years of supply of greenfield land partly depends on the size of lots being produced. If new lots are smaller on average than in the past the supply of englobo land is extended.
Since 2015 the majority of lots have been over 650 m2 with some smaller lots released in 2019 and 2020.
Size of greenfield retail lots with a title, 2015 to July 2022
Fragmented land
The rate at which greenfield land can be developed into houses can also partly depend on the characteristics of englobo lots. Large englobo lots, such as those over 10 hectares, can be easier to assemble and service. Smaller lots can provide opportunities for small to medium sized developments.
In Horsham 3 zoned englobo lots have an area of 10 hectares or more which is estimated to produce 950 retail lots.
Latrobe (Churchill, Moe, Morwell and Traralgon)
The Urban Development Program identifies greenfield land as land zoned for an urban residential use, such as land zoned General Residential Zone.
In Churchill, Moe, Morwell and Traralgon there is capacity for 9,500 residential lots (26 to 42 years supply) on zoned land.
These estimates of the number of years of supply are based on the average rate of lots released over a longer-term time period (between January 2018 and June 2022) and a shorter-term time period (between January 2020 and June 2022).
Recent population trends
Over the last decade, population in Latrobe has grown by 3,300 people to reach a population of 77,000. Around 330 dwellings per year have been built over the last 10 years to accommodate that population growth in smaller greenfield developments and infill sites. Traralgon has accounted for most of the population and dwelling increase.
Greenfield Supply
Greenfield land is made up larger lots commonly referred to as englobo land supply. It is classified as either:
- unzoned future residential land; or;
- zoned future residential land.
At end of June 2022 there were an estimated 9,502 retail lots in zoned englobo greenfield land. There were no major residential infill sites identified.
Estimated retail lot supply, June 2022
Town/Area | Development Type | Unzoned | Zoned | Proposed | Total Supply |
Churchill | Greenfield | 0 | 1,494 | 97 | 1,591 |
Moe/Newborough | Greenfield | 0 | 4,724 | 263 | 4,987 |
Morwell | Greenfield | 0 | 1,220 | 123 | 1,343 |
Traralgon | Greenfield | 0 | 1,223 | 358 | 1,581 |
Greenfield Total | 0 | 8,661 | 841 | 9,502 | |
All | Major infill | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Total | 0 | 8,661 | 841 | 9,502 |
Retail lots released with a title
Estimates of the number of years of supply are based on the average rate of retail lots released over a longer-term time period (between January 2018 and June 2022) and a shorter-term time period (between January 2020 and June 2022). Retail lots are considered released when a title has been registered and ready to construct a dwelling on.
Between 2018 and 2021 retail lot production has been averaging around 210 lots p.a. Since 2018 the level of retail lot production has been varied. In the first half of 2022, 186 lots have been released in Churchill, Moe, Morwell and Traralgon.
Greenfield retail lots with a title, 2015 to July 2022
Size of greenfield retail lots
The years of supply of greenfield land partly depends on the size of lots being produced. If new lots are smaller on average than in the past the supply of englobo land is extended.
Since 2015 the majority of lots have been over 500 m2 with most years, including 2021 and the first half of 2022, having more than 60% of lots over 650 m2.
Size of greenfield retail lots with a title, 2015 to July 2022
Fragmented land
The rate at which greenfield land can be developed into houses can also partly depend on the characteristics of englobo lots. Large englobo lots, such as those over 10 hectares, can be easier to assemble and service. Smaller lots can provide opportunities for small to medium sized developments.
In Churchill, Moe, Morwell and Traralgon 27 zoned englobo lots have an area of 10 hectares or more which is estimated to produce 5,750 retail lots.
Macedon Ranges (Gisborne and Kyneton)
The Urban Development Program identifies greenfield land as land zoned for an urban residential use, such as land zoned General Residential Zone.
In Gisborne and Kyneton there is capacity for 1,600 residential lots (8 to 10 years supply) on zoned land.
These estimates of the number of years of supply are based on the average rate of lots released over a longer-term time period (between January 2018 and June 2022) and a shorter-term time period (between January 2020 and June 2022).
Recent population trends
Over the last decade, population in the Macedon Ranges Shire has grown by 8,700 people to reach a population of 51,500. Around 380 dwellings per year have been built over the last 10 years to accommodate that population growth, with this activity occurring primarily in the towns of Gisborne, Kyneton, Romsey and Woodend.
Greenfield Supply
Greenfield land is made up larger lots commonly referred to as englobo land supply. It is classified as either:
- unzoned future residential land; or;
- zoned future residential land.
At end of June 2022 there were an estimated 1,583 retail lots in zoned englobo greenfield land. There were also enough potential major residential infill sites for an estimated 213 retail lots. Major infill is not included in the greenfield years of supply calculation.
Estimated retail lot supply, June 2022
Town/Area | Development Type | Unzoned | Zoned | Proposed | Total Supply |
Gisborne | Greenfield | 0 | 717 | 540 | 1,257 |
Kyneton | Greenfield | 0 | 279 | 47 | 326 |
Greenfield Total | 0 | 996 | 587 | 1,583 | |
All | Major infill | 0 | 117 | 96 | 213 |
Total | 0 | 1,113 | 683 | 1,796 |
Retail lots released with a title
Estimates of the number of years of supply are based on the average rate of retail lots released over a longer-term time period (between January 2018 and June 2022) and a shorter-term time period (between January 2020 and June 2022). Retail lots are considered released when a title has been registered and ready to construct a dwelling on.
Between 2018 and 2021 retail lot production has been averaging around 160 lots p.a. Since 2018 the level of retail lot production has been varied. However, in the first half of 2022, 62 lots have been released which is equal to the amount released for the whole of 2017.
Greenfield retail lots with a title, 2015 to July 2022
Size of greenfield retail lots
The years of supply of greenfield land partly depends on the size of lots being produced. If new lots are smaller on average than in the past the supply of englobo land is extended.
Since 2015 the majority of lots have been over 650 m2 with most years. The last two years have seen an increase in lots between 500 and 650 m2, in 2021 this size made up nearly half of greenfield subdivision.
Size of greenfield retail lots with a title, 2015 to July 2022
Fragmented land
The rate at which greenfield land can be developed into houses can also partly depend on the characteristics of englobo lots. Large englobo lots, such as those over 10 hectares, can be easier to assemble and service. Smaller lots can provide opportunities for small to medium sized developments.
In Macedon Ranges 2 zoned englobo lots have an area of 10 hectares or more which is estimated to produce 650 retail lots.
Mildura
The Urban Development Program identifies greenfield land as land zoned for an urban residential use, such as land zoned General Residential Zone.
In Mildura there is capacity for 3,600 residential lots (18 to 20 years supply) on zoned land and an additional 7,600 residential lots (39 to 43 years supply) on land planned to be rezoned.
These estimates of the number of years of supply are based on the average rate of lots released over a longer-term time period (between January 2018 and June 2022) and a shorter-term time period (between January 2020 and June 2022).
Recent population trends
Over the last decade, population in Mildura has grown by 5,000 people to reach a population of 57,000. Around 300 dwellings per year have been built over the last 10 years to accommodate that population growth, with this activity primarily occurring in greenfield estates in Mildura and small greenfield developments and infill in Red Cliffs and Merbein.
Greenfield Supply
Greenfield land is made up larger lots commonly referred to as englobo land supply. It is classified as either:
- unzoned future residential land; or;
- zoned future residential land.
At end of June 2022 there were an estimated 11,178 retail lots in unzoned and zoned englobo greenfield land. There were no major infill sites identified.
Estimated retail lot supply, June 2022
Town/Area | Development Type | Unzoned | Zoned | Proposed | Total Supply |
Mildura | Greenfield | 7,600 | 3,154 | 424 | 11,178 |
Greenfield Total | 7,600 | 3,154 | 424 | 11,178 | |
Mildura | Major infill | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Total | 7,600 | 3,154 | 424 | 11,178 |
Retail lots released with a title
Estimates of the number of years of supply are based on the average rate of retail lots released over a longer-term time period (between January 2018 and June 2022) and a shorter-term time period (between January 2020 and June 2022). Retail lots are considered released when a title has been registered and ready to construct a dwelling on.
Between 2018 and 2021 retail lot production has been averaging around 160 lots p.a. Since 2018 the level of retail lot production has been steady. However, in the first half of 2022, 132 lots have been released which nearly equal to the annual amount of recent years.