State planning policy identifies the requirement to accommodate projected population growth over at least a 15 year period and provide clear direction on locations where growth should occur.
The Urban Development Program identifies greenfield land as land zoned for an urban residential use, such as land zoned General Residential Zone.
There are between 23 and 24 years of zoned greenfield supply in Mildura. With the addition of land identified to be rezoned, there are between 69 and 72 years of total land supply.
These estimates of the number of years of supply are based on the average rate of lots released over a longer-term time period (between January 2018 and June 2021) and a shorter-term time period (between January 2020 and June 2021).
Recent population trends
Over the last decade, population in Mildura has grown by 4,300 people to reach a population of around 56,000. Around 300 dwellings per year have been built over the last 10 years to accommodate that population growth in greenfield estates in Mildura and small greenfield developments and infill in small towns like Red Cliffs and Merbein surrounding Mildura.
Greenfield land is made up larger lots commonly referred to as englobo land supply. It is classified as either:
- unzoned future residential land; or;
- zoned future residential land.
At end of June 2021 there were an estimated 3,843 retail lots of unzoned and zoned englobo greenfield land. No major infill land (land over 1 ha in in the existing established area) was identified.
Estimated retail lot supply - Mildura - June 2021
Retail lots released with a title
Estimates of the number of years of supply are based on the average rate of retail lots released over a longer-term time period (between January 2018 and June 2021) and a shorter-term time period (between January 2020 and June 2021). Retail lots are considered released when a title has been registered and ready to construct a dwelling on.
Between 2018 and 2020 retail lot production has been averaging around 160 lots p.a. Since 2018 the level of retail lot production has been steady. In the first half of 2021 85 lots have been released in Mildura.
Greenfield retail lots with a title, 2015 to July 2021
Size of greenfield retail lots
The years of supply of greenfield land partly depends on the size of lots being produced. If new lots are smaller on average than in the past the supply of englobo land is extended.
Size of greenfield retail lots with a title, 2015 to July 2021
The rate at which greenfield land can be developed into houses can also partly depend on the characteristics of englobo lots. Large englobo lots, such as those over 10 hectares, can be easier to assemble and service. Smaller lots can provide opportunities for small to medium sized developments.
In Mildura 3 englobo lots have an area of 10 hectares or more which is estimated to produce 450 retail lots.