Baw Baw (Drouin and Warragul)
State planning policy identifies the requirement to accommodate projected population growth over at least a 15 year period and provide clear direction on locations where growth should occur.
The Urban Development Program identifies greenfield land as land zoned for an urban residential use, such as land zoned General Residential Zone.
These estimates of the number of years of supply are based on the average rate of lots released over a longer-term time period (between January 2018 and June 2021) and a shorter-term time period (between January 2020 and June 2021).
Recent population trends
Over the last decade, population in Baw Baw Shire has grown by 13,000 people to reach a population of around 55,000. Around 600 dwellings per year have been built over the last 10 years to accommodate that population growth, with most growth taking place in large greenfields estates in Drouin and Warragul.
Greenfield land is made up larger lots commonly referred to as englobo land supply. It is classified as either:
- unzoned future residential land; or;
- zoned future residential land.
At the end of June 2021 there was sufficient unzoned and zoned greenfield land in Drouin and Warragul for an estimated 21,799 retail lots. There were also enough potential major residential infill sites for an estimated 108 lots. Major infill is not included in the greenfield years of supply calculation.
Estimated retail lot supply - Drouin and Warragul June 2021
Retail lots released with a title
Estimates of the number of years of supply are based on the average rate of retail lots released over a longer-term time period (between January 2018 and June 2021) and a shorter-term time period (between January 2020 and June 2021). Retail lots are considered released when a title has been registered and ready to construct a dwelling on.
Between 2018 and 2020 lot production has been averaging around 600 lots p.a. Since 2018 the level of lot production has been trending down. In the first half of 2021 413 lots have been released in Drouin and Warragul.
Greenfield retail lots with a title, 2015 to July 2021
Size of greenfield retail lots
The years of supply of greenfield land partly depends on the size of lots being produced. If new lots are smaller on average than in the past the supply of englobo land is extended.
Size of greenfield retail lots with a title, 2015 to July 2021
The rate at which greenfield land can be developed into houses can also partly depend on the characteristics of englobo lots. Large englobo lots, such as those over 10 hectares, can be easier to assemble and service. Smaller lots can provide opportunities for small to medium sized developments.
In Drouin and Warragul 75 englobo lots have an area of 10 hectares or more which is estimated to produce 16,000 retail lots.